High Season 2025–2026 Results and Future Forecasts

Although Holy Cow Phuket is not yet the largest player in the Phuket rental market, we are actively moving with market trends. Based on our experience, we can easily take the pulse of the industry. And yes, by early March we can already draw conclusions for the season.

Property Management 2025–2026

This season, we have no reason to complain. Thanks to growth in the quantity and quality of properties, as well as rental price increases, we broke our own revenue record with a +80% increase compared to last season. However, due to rising expenses—additional staff, increased operational costs, and IT infrastructure investments—Holy Cow Phuket’s profit grew more modestly at +30%. Property owners’ absolute income also increased, but less significantly, averaging 5–12% compared to last season.

We completed major website improvements, refined our White Label agent platform, and introduced new convenient owner dashboards. Work on dynamic pricing and internal accounting continues but is nearing completion.

Due to market shifts and our efforts, high season revenue grew significantly, but risks related to low season also emerged (discussed below).

What Was Typical?

There’s active migration of property owners from developer-affiliated management companies that disappointed expectations to independent professional commercial companies. Every second owner who comes to Holy Cow Phuket with management questions is dissatisfied with their previous company or agents regarding: payment consistency, report transparency, contract compliance, occupancy rates, and income levels.

By mid-October, all premium peak season offerings were sold out, and prices averaged 10–15% higher than the previous year. The season proceeded normally, except there was no traditional “occupancy dip” in early December.

Naturally, guests prefer newly developed properties like Beachside, Calypso Garden, Legendary, and Mida Grande. Infrastructure—co-working spaces, game rooms, pet-friendly amenities—are becoming increasingly standard. Properties with only a pool and gym are losing popularity even in prime locations.

Phuket Island hosts many scammers who take deposits for “attractive properties” and disappear with the money, leaving tourists to deal with the problems. Private villa owners, finding more lucrative deals, cancel existing bookings, forcing guests to search for new accommodation at higher prices—sometimes literally the day before arrival.

This indirectly benefits reputable companies like Holy Cow Phuket, helping us collect more last-minute bookings and more easily fill calendars during high season.

The trend of digital nomads and long-term Phuket living remains strong. Throughout last year and the beginning of this one, we’ve recorded increased interest in long-term bookings. Naturally so! Late season is always the best time to seek long-term contracts. Selection is maximum and there’s room for negotiation. So in the next 2–3 months, we expect 15–25% of our pool to be rented on long-term contracts.

What Was Unusual?

This year brought “pseudo-fraud” through the Tripadvisor platform for a rather silly reason: if a guest disabled notifications on the platform, the property has no way to contact them. As a result, the guest doesn’t receive check-in instructions, arrives at the property and can’t check in. Many guests immediately assume they’ve been scammed and search for other accommodation. Though they only needed to enable notifications or call/text the phone number listed on the booking. Fair to say, Tripadvisor’s verification isn’t strict and their communication system malfunctions. This makes life easier for actual scammers who are certainly present there.

There’s a noticeable trend toward shorter vacation rental stays. Apparently, rising rental prices force guests to shorten their vacations to stay within budget. Good news for hotels, bad news for condo owners and management companies trying to operate legally. Fortunately, we currently have a solution to this problem.

Market supply growth caused a sharper price decline after January and continued downward through February. By March, most management companies felt market pressure on occupancy and continued price cuts (i.e., dumping). On some offerings, March prices are already only 50% of January levels. This represents approximately 20% greater decline than last season.

The booking platform landscape has shifted. Airbnb is rapidly losing its Russian market segment, which represents approximately 30–50% of bookings in high season. Booking.com captured market share by partnering with Yandex.Travel, and other OTAs unapologetically accept Russian payments. Companies and owners dependent on Airbnb effectively lost 20–50% of bookings this season.

Fortunately, Holy Cow Phuket addressed platform dependency long ago by actively implementing multi-platform solutions, investing in our own infrastructure and website. So we didn’t suffer occupancy drops despite increased competition and structural market changes.

Direct bookings initially comprised about 60–65% in autumn but were diluted throughout the season by numerous OTA and agent bookings. Direct bookings eventually stabilized at 25–35%. Partly because Airbnb couldn’t accept Russian payments and guests sought alternatives. Result: significant OTA commission savings.

Forecasts

• Short-term: Against the backdrop of Middle East problems and continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict, we expect a weak low season with reduced revenue and heavy OTA dependence for occupancy. High price sensitivity will persist.
• Mid-term: The number of offerings will grow rapidly, leading if not to oversupply, then at least to strengthened competition on the island.

The market faces a shortage (possibly even crisis) of professional management. Companies will encounter growth problems and slow development. Many have already paused, digesting volume. Many dissatisfied investors exist—those who invested based on inflated agent projections but faced reality. This season, owners frequently hunted the market unable to find willing property managers. Holy Cow Phuket, for example, declines approximately 30% of inquiring owners because their properties don’t fit our format or we can’t synchronize with the owners themselves.

Recommendations for Investors

When purchasing, note that property returns peak only in the first 2–3 years post-launch and only if the property is genuinely successful. If projected returns at purchase are below 5%, I recommend abstaining from purchase altogether. To calculate realistic returns before buying—welcome to us! 🤗

Respectfully, Sergey Shalyapin Founder, Holy Cow Phuket 🏠